Democrats have been narrowing the gap in many of those races over the past 24 hours. The Associated Press called seven new congressional races on Friday and two on Saturday — all for Democrats. That included a seat in southwest Washington State that POLITICO’s Election Forecast had rated “Lean Republican” and where Republicans failed to mount a strong defense after their incumbent lost in a primary to a Trump-backed challenger.
The balance of power in the House currently stands at 211 Republicans and 201 Democrats — but, functionally, it’s more closely divided. The list of uncalled races includes one California contest where both general-election candidates are Democrats. And allocating the roughly dozen races where one party is significantly favored — but where The AP hasn’t made a call — adds seven more seats to the Democratic Party’s tally, and four races to Republicans’.
That would put Republicans at 215 seats, just three seats away from the majority, while Democrats would be eight seats short. But with 10 seats in doubt — six with Republicans leading, and four where Democrats are ahead — both parties still have a shot, though the GOP is still favored.
Here is a district-by-district breakdown of the uncalled races as of Saturday afternoon, and what could happen next:
UP-FOR-GRAB RACES — 10 TOTAL, WITH GOP LEADING 6-4
Arizona-01 (Pre-Nov. 8 POLITICO Election Forecast rating: Lean Republican): GOP Rep. David Schweikert is trailing Democrat Jevin Hodge by around 2,500 votes.That’s after Schweikert made gains late Saturday in Maricopa County, which includes the entire district. He’ll need the state’s trend toward a “red shift” later in the count to continue.
Arizona-06 (Lean Republican): Republican Juan Ciscomani holds only a narrow lead over Democrat Kirsten Engel — about 1,400 votes — in a race that has narrowed significantly since Election Day, including on Saturday, when Engel halved her raw-vote deficit. It’s not clear whether the remaining votes in Pima County (Tucson) will help Engel close the gap completely.
California-13 (Lean Republican): This one looks like a nail-biter: Republican John Duarte leads Democrat Adam Gray by 84 votes as of Saturday afternoon, with only 61 percent of the ballots tallied, according to The Associated Press.
California-22 (Toss Up): Is it déjà vu for Rep. David Valadao? The California Republican was so far ahead of his Democratic opponent on election night in 2018 that The AP declared him the winner — only to retract the call when Valadao fell behind weeks later. This time, Valadao (who eventually returned to Congress after winning in 2020) leads Democrat Rudy Salas by 5 points, but that’s already down from 8 points on Tuesday night.
California-41 (Lean Republican): GOP Rep. Ken Calvert leads Democrat Will Rollins by about 2,100 votes in the Inland Empire, but it’s not clear how the late-counted ballots will break.
California-47 (Lean Democratic): Democratic Rep. Katie Porter leads Republican Scott Baugh by 3 percentage points, as late-arriving ballots in Orange County have helped extend what was an extremely narrow lead on Election Day.
California-49 (Toss Up): Democratic Rep. Mike Levin has opened up a 5-point lead over Republican Brian Maryott in a race that’s close to moving into the Democrats’ column.
Colorado-03 (Likely Republican): GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert is up by about 1,100 votes over Democrat Adam Frisch. Frisch needs to eat into Boebert’s advantage in the final ballots to have a shot to surpass her in the likely recount, which will occur if the two candidates finish within half a percentage point of each other (Boebert currently leads by 0.4 points).
New York-22 (Toss Up): Republican Brandon Williams is nearly 4,000 votes ahead of Democrat Francis Conole, who is hoping that still-to-be-counted absentee ballots in Syracuse are enough to push him over the top.
Oregon-06 (Toss Up): Democrat Andrea Salinas is 4,000 votes ahead of Republican Mike Erickson, with 79 percent of precincts reporting.