Timefigure evaluation from Graeme North

Do not miss our timefigure guru on Gaellic Warrior, Allegorie de Vassy, It is For Me and an unraced bumper horse to maintain on aspect.

With no jumps racing in Britain to analyse aside from a humdrum assembly at Hereford final Monday, there’s far much less to go at than ordinary this week however there was nonetheless some respectable motion in Eire together with one race that wouldn’t have been misplaced on the Cheltenham Pageant and the draw-down in motion at the least offers me the chance to cowl belatedly the bumper scene.

Clonmel’s card final Tuesday was enlivened by the presence of Gaelic Warrior, runner-up in the latest Fred Winter when gambled on and now the recipient of an official handicap mark in Eire (143) that’s extra reflective – if not totally – of his means than the woefully inadequate 134 that he had been awarded beforehand.

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Gaelic Warrior’s efficiency didn’t actually inform us something we didn’t already learn about him – he jumped proper as ordinary and was not unexpectedly left to do his personal factor in entrance by a number of rivals who wouldn’t have been eager to have end shut – and, for as soon as, there was nothing to wash a lot from the clock both. Clonmel is the latest addition to the roster of Irish tracks that Timeform return jumps timefigures from and is likely one of the few tracks there that return distances to the precise yard.

Gaelic Warrior’s race was one in every of 4 over two miles and 100 and sixty-four yards and was slower than all however one of many others. Timefigures weren’t straightforward to return on the day with a mix of floor deterioration and observe place (Gaelic Warrior stored to the broad exterior all the best way which seemingly persuaded practically all of the riders within the following handicap was the very best route just for the simple winner of that race to stay tight to the extra churned-up internal) demanding a component of knowledgeable interpretation.

Within the circumstances I wouldn’t maintain both his lowly ultimate 78 timefigure or his circuit time (time taken from the ultimate hurdle on the penultimate circuit to the successful line on the ultimate circuit, which was getting on for 3 seconds slower than the winner of the opener, his stable-companion Evening And Day) towards him and he stays an good prospect for the whichever race he takes in subsequent.

In frequent with just a few mares skilled by Willie Mullins, Evening And Day appears to be like to have a good bit of dimension and scope to her. She steered a center course towards some very modest rivals and impressed along with her hurdling to win in a 105 timefigure however even her improve to 120 after sectionals from two furlongs out are included is nearly definitely not reflective of her probably means.

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Punchestown’s card final Monday didn’t throw up a lot of curiosity, however there was some good motion at Navan and Thurles on the weekend with Mahler Mission being the standout performer on the former venue.

Seventh within the Albert Bartlett final season earlier than successful a listed novice at Perth, Mahler Mission has taken a little bit of time to get the grasp of the bigger obstacles however comprehensively reversed latest Punchestown type with Shantreuse to attain in a 139 timefigure which is an effective deal increased than he had achieved over hurdles.

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Tenzing was a bit underwhelming in second place, however there was a good quantity of promise in third from Gars de Sceaux. He hasn’t been the simplest to maintain sound and may properly want heavy floor to be seen to greatest impact, however the huge gray – nonetheless solely seven – was one of many stars of his yr in Irish factors and may but make up for misplaced time on this proof.

HMS Seahorse (fourth in Gaelic Warrior’s Fred Winter) took the characteristic handicap hurdle however he had youth on his aspect in a race the place most didn’t and whether or not he fairly needed to discover the development the consequence suggests I’m undecided. A timefigure of 115 (second quickest on the day over the smaller obstacles behind the rated novice hurdle winner Path d’Ouroux who clocked a 121) would counsel to me he didn’t.

Vassy appears to be like high-class prospect

Thurles staged a really attention-grabbing card on Sunday with present Mares’ Novice Chase favorite Allegorie de Vassy and the 2022 Grade 1 Melling Chase winner Fakir d’Oudairies among the many winners. It’s unlucky that the historic knowledge returned from there and upon which timefigure requirements are calculated is so unreliable that I took the choice when launching Timeform jumps timefigures in 2016 to keep away from returning them from there (a choice not too long ago revisited with the identical final result) so I’ve needed to lean on circuit instances to delve a bit deeper into the benefit of a few of the performances.

A comparability between Allegorie de Vassy and Fakir D’Oudairies’ general instances and their ultimate circuit instances doesn’t on the face of it replicate blindingly properly on the previous who coated the prolonged two and a half miles round three seconds slower regardless of carrying 9lb much less, however she dictated a reasonably stop-start tempo and got here dwelling quicker from two out and a good bit quicker (nearly a second and a half regardless of her rider sat nonetheless within the saddle) from the final and will little doubt have gone a good bit quicker nonetheless by way of the race than she wanted to.

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I doubt she’ll fail for means at Cheltenham however leaving apart her mistake on the first (after the ridiculously long term to it which was certainly an element) her leaping method that noticed her stretching for quite a few fences received’t be as straightforward to get away with at Cheltenham because it was at Thurles the place the fences are gentle and the faller price because the second-last was relocated is a lowly three and a half per cent.

The shape guide will document a fall on the final within the characteristic Grade 2 Horse & Jockey Resort Chase however Haut En Couleurs, who had simply taken up the operating and would most likely have nearly held Fakir D’Oudairie, jumped the fence cleanly solely to hit upon touchdown.

It was a much-improved effort from the teenager, who’s clearly far more at dwelling over two and a half than he’s two and had come on significantly for his latest reappearance when he had Fakir in entrance of him and I’d anticipate much more enchancment stepped as much as three miles in time. Stumptown was one other who had youth on his aspect within the handicap chase, however I wouldn’t be dismissive of his following up regardless of the clobbering he’ll get for a twelve-length win given he ran the ultimate circuit quicker than Allegorie de Vassy and fewer than a second slower than Fakir D’Oudairies.

One of many nice sights of this sport is recognizing one a run or two earlier than anybody else and that is what I needed to say about Ferns Lock after his hunter debut at Fairyhouse in November: “If there was a future Cheltenham winner on present, nevertheless, it was certainly Ferns Lock within the Hunter Chase. Regardless of contesting the final of 4 races on the chase course on heavy floor and over an extended journey,

“Ferns Lock ran the gap from the third final to the road (in addition to from two out and the ultimate fence) quicker than Gerri Colombe with out even coming off the bridle after an outstanding spherical of leaping. These ultimate sectionals paint a a lot rosier image of his means than his general timefigure (68, reflecting a steadily-run race) and I think he’s little if any inferior to his stablemate Vaucelet who at the moment heads the market at 9-2 for the Foxhunters. Whether or not Ferns Locks takes within the 2023 renewal stays to be seen, however at 25-1 I’m fairly completely satisfied to pay to search out out.”

The draw back of such a state of affairs, nevertheless, is that the goal you will have your eye on and for which the horse is tastily priced up shouldn’t be the identical one within the thoughts of the coach, and regardless of a 20-length demolition of reigning hunter champion Billaway at Thurles the vibes appear robust that Ferns Lock will miss Cheltenham. That’s unlucky as I’m in little doubt he’s extra gifted than some other hunter in coaching.

Mullins star lives as much as the hype

Lastly, there was a efficiency on the weekend to shake up the ante-post marketplace for the Champion Bumper and it was delivered by the Willie Mullins skilled It’s For Me at Navan.

He earned a score of 113p from Timeform and an general timefigure score properly excessive within the 120s (simply adequate to win an everyday Champion Bumper renewal) after sectionals are included. The clock isn’t all the time the very best information to the benefit of bumper type, nevertheless, with most of the races tending to be run at a gradual gallop, and I discover the Irish level scores I maintain (which use ultimate instances and sectional instances as their foundation earlier than changes are made for race requirements and kind) often show to be a greater predictor of means beneath Guidelines.

It’s For Me was one of many highest achievers in that area final season as I noticed it, operating a 122 when successful at Loughanmore in April.

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There’s just one different horse within the present betting for the Champion Bumper I had increased – and extra about him in a minute – however for what it’s well worth the pecking order in final season’s factors on my figures behind It’s For Me who’re quoted prominently for Cheltenham is Fancy Woman and Reality To File (each 120), Higher Days Forward, Pour Les Filles and Irish Panther (all 117), Chosen Witness (116) then Chapeau De Soleil and Encanto Bruno (each 115).

Among the many unraced ones The Gunner Yeats (115) is a probable good type, having been snapped up by Susannah Ricci, however essentially the most attention-grabbing one nonetheless to run beneath Guidelines for me is Barry The Butcher (123) who had the first-time Aintree winner Man At Work properly held in third in his level win.

He is skilled by Henry de Bromhead, whose first-time-out document in bumpers with good prospects sourced from the pointing area is nice (round 19%) however the Knockeen handler has solely introduced three horses over right here to contest a bumper since 2010 (his solely runner within the Cheltenham Bumper, Supasundae, completed sixth) and it appears way more more likely to me he’ll be stored at dwelling this yr. All the identical, he’s very a lot one for the pocket book.


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